Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 4-13-0 (3rd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Doug Pederson (3rd Year – Fired Post Week 18)
Preseason Expectations:
Coming off an embarrassing collapse down the stretch of the 2023-24 season, in part to the injury of quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the Jacksonville Jaguars reloaded during the offseason, looking to return to the playoffs for the second time in three years. With a defensive unit led by Josh Hines-Allen and former 1st overall pick Travon Walker, and an offense led by the former Clemson pair of quarterback Trevor Lawrence and running back Travis Etienne, Jacksonville had a core that could compete in a rather weak AFC South.
Jaguars owner Shad Khan had high expectations for the team this season. Back in August, he spoke highly of the roster put together by Head Coach Doug Pederson and general manager Trent Baalke. Khan said, “Make no mistake: this is the best team assembled by the Jacksonville Jaguars ever” (Associated Press).
A revamped wide receiver core was the key to the Jaguars’ success in 2024. With 1,000-yard receiver Calvin Ridley gone, the Jaguars brought back tight end Evan Engram, as well as signing Buffalo Bills deep threat Gabe Davis, and drafting LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. with the 23rd pick in the 2024 NFL Draft
However, the biggest move of Jacksonville’s offseason was securing their investment in Trevor Lawrence, as the former number one overall pick was signed to a 5 year, $275,000,000 contract in March (Shook).
With high expectations from the owner, a roster that had the potential to make waves in 2024, and a quarterback that hadn’t reached his peak yet, Jacksonville had reason to be excited, and then it all fell apart.
The Regression of Travis Etienne:
The preseason expectations were shattered overnight, as Jacksonville got off to a 0-4 start, being outscored 109-60 in the month of September. Averaging just 15 points per game in the first month of the season, the Jaguars lost three of their September matchups by 6 points or less.
A frustrating start to the season was made even more so by the mysteriously slow start by running back Travis Etienne. After recording 1,484 scrimmage yards in each of his first two seasons, Etienne recorded just 214 yards across 49 carries from weeks 1-4. Expected to be a major factor of the offense, the former first round pick’s regression limited Jacksonville’s success.
As the season progressed, the Jaguars’ number one running back couldn’t get going. His touchdowns in Week 1 and 2 would be the only Touchdowns he recorded all season. While running back Tank Bigsby was able to produce—recording more yards, touchdowns, and a better yards/attempt ratio—Etienne hurt more than he helped in 2024.
Turnovers:
In the 2024-25 season, Jacksonville played in 11 games decided by 6 points or less. Their record in those games: 2-9. Turnovers ultimately cost them in some of those one score games.
| Turnovers Leading to Losses for JAX | ||
| Turnovers | Final Score | Points From TO |
| W1: Travis Etienne Fumble stops 84-yard drive, MIA Scores on Next Play | Final Score: MIA 20 – 17 JAX | MIA +7 |
| W8: Trevor Lawrence Intercepted, Packers Score TD 3 plays later
Trevor Lawrence Fumbles inside own 5, leading to GB TD |
Final Score: GB 30-27 JAX | GB +14 |
| W9:
Trevor Lawrence INT leads to PHI TD Drive Muffed Punt leads to PHI TD. |
Final Score: PHI 28-23 | PHI: +14 |
| W10: Ronald Darby INT’s MIN’s Sam Darnold, Fumbles, leading MIN to FG Drive.
Honorable Mention: Mac Jones throws Goal Line INT to cost JAX at least 3 Points |
Final Score: MIN 12 – 7 JAX | MIN: +6 |
Four of the Jaguars one-score losses were caused by turnovers leading to scoring drives. While it can’t be said that all of these drives would have led to Jacksonville scores if they didn’t result in turnovers, it can be said that they all lead to opponents scoring, leading to Jaguars losses
Moreover, the inability for Jacksonville to create turnovers was evident, as the Jaguars had 9 takeaways, the fewest in the NFL. With three forced fumbles, and six interceptions across 18 games, Jacksonville’s defense rarely changed the momentum of the game. However, the biggest turnover that killed the Jaguars season was the change at quarterback.
Trevor Lawrence Gets Injured:
While the Jaguars season was already slipping away, it was ultimately put to an end when Trevor Lawrence was injured in the week 9 game against the Philadelphia Eagles. With a 2-7 record, Jacksonville had to rely on backup quarterback and former Patriots starter Mac Jones to play quarterback. This forced change highlighted the struggles of the offense in 2024, as Jones threw for 249 yards, zero touchdowns, and three interceptions over Jacksonville’s next two games.
While Lawrence’s injury stint was only those two weeks, returning after the Jaguars bye week, the return would not last long as his season was ended when Azeez Al-Shaair hit Lawrence late, giving the quarterback a massive concussion.
Lawrence would not return to the field for the remainder of the season, as the Jaguars would finish the season 4-13-0.
Baalke in, Pederson Out:
Following another disappointing season in Jacksonville, the Jaguars fired head coach Doug Pederson. Despite the change at head coach, general manager Trent Baalke will be returning for his 5th season as GM. In that time, Jacksonville is 25-43, with one playoff appearance, and averaging just 6.25 wins per season.
The decision to keep Baalke is controversial, as this will be the Jaguars 3rd head coach in his tenure. With Baalke as the GM, the team has never finished better than 9-8 despite playing in an AFC South that has been lackluster over the past four seasons.
Many fans and pundits expected a change—some dreaming for one—but that clearly is not happening. With that in mind, what can Jaguars fans look forward to in 2025?
2025 in DUUUUVAALLLLLLL
Unlike the previous four teams we’ve talked about in this series, the Jaguars don’t falter from a lack of an offensive line. The Jacksonville O-Line only allowed 32 sacks in 2024, less than the Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, and the 14-3 Minnesota Vikings.
We’ve already established that turnovers killed the Jaguars before the injury to Trevor Lawrence did. However, Trevor Lawrence still didn’t play particularly well this season in his 10 games. 11 Touchdowns to 7 Interceptions is nowhere near what Jacksonville needs out of the first overall pick. With a new head coach coming in, they need to find someone who can bring the best out of Trevor Lawrence.
Names like Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson come to mind immediately, seeing how he helped restore confidence and rebuild the career of quarterback Jared Goff. The Jaguars have requested an interview with Johnson, according to Sports Illustrated, and the sky is the limit as to what Johnson could do with the young Tigers (from Clemson and LSU) in Duval County,
One thing Jacksonville needs to do is improve those turnover numbers. They need secondary help, as they allowed the most passing yards in 2024. Some of the best Jaguars teams—and there aren’t many—have had a lockdown corner, whether that be Jalen Ramsey or Shaq Griffin. They could get that through a free agency, or the more likely route is through the draft.
With the fifth overall pick, Michigan cornerback Will Johnson is the most likely name to be selected here. While injuries tanked his season, Johnson is still one of the best talents in the draft. A lockdown corner with a high IQ, Johnson is exactly what the Jaguars need, and he should be available at the number five spot, all things considered.
Jacksonville needs to extend Travon Walker to a long-term deal sooner rather than later, as he’s proving that he was worth the number one overall pick. The longer they wait, the more money they’re going to spend to keep him.
2025 is a huge season for Jacksonville. With a new head coach sure to come, a prime draft position, and a young core that is showing mountains of promise, any step back could derail the entire franchise.
