Miami Dolphins
Record: 8-9-0 (2nd in AFC East)
Head Coach: Mike McDaniel (3rd Year)
While their AFC East counterpart, the New York Jets have the longest active playoff drought in the NFL, the Miami Dolphins currently have the longest active winless playoff drought in the league, with their last playoff win coming on December 30th, 2000—before anyone in STN’s sports department was born. Flash forward to 2024, the Miami Dolphins have a roster that could compete for the AFC East title and make a deep run in the playoffs. There is just one problem. The Dolphins can’t play in the cold. With a schedule that saw the Dolphins travel to Green Bay and Buffalo late in the season, there was reason to believe Mike McDaniel’s men weren’t going to be successful in 2024.
Tua Tagovailoa
The Dolphins live and die by the arm of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. It’s a sentiment all too familiar in the NFL nowadays, if you don’t have a quarterback, you’re not going to win games. Unfortunately for the Dolphins and moreso for Tagovailoa, the Dolphins franchise quarterback suffered another scary concussion early in the 2024 season.
The injury came after Tagovailoa dove headfirst into Bills safety Damar Hamlin. Much like his injury against Cincinnati in 2022, the sight of his hands tensing up was the immediate signal that something was wrong. The scary scene instantly tanked the morale of the Dolphins season, as the team would go 1-4 over the next five games without Tua.
In that five game stretch, the Dolphins would be outscored 109-67 as Tyler Huntley couldn’t get the Miami offense moving in place of Tua Tagovailoa.
By the time Tua came back, the Dolphins were 2-5. Fortunately, the light schedule stopped the season from being a complete disappointment.
The Dolphins Are Bullies
Back in the preseason, one of the most important reasons people were ranking the Dolphins so high was the easy schedule they possessed. Outside of the division rival Bills, the Dolphins were faced up against the rookie QB-head coach tandem in New England, Aaron Rodgers coming off an Achilles tear, and the entire AFC South. While the NFC West should have balanced this out, injuries made for a strange season.
All of these matchups lead to Miami having the easiest strength of schedule at the end of the season, with their opponents combining for a .419-win percentage. (Tankathon). With that in mind, let’s take a look at the matchups that produced wins this season:
Week 1: 20-17 W vs Jacksonville Jaguars (4-13)
Week 5: 15-10 W vs New England Patriots (4-13)
Week 10: 23-15 W vs Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
Week 11: 34-19 W vs Las Vegas Raiders (4-13)
Week 12: 34-15 W vs New England Patriots (4-13)
Week 14: 32-26 OT W vs New York Jets (5-12)
Week 16: 29-17 W vs San Francisco 49ers (6-11)
Week 17: 20-3 W vs Cleveland Browns (3-14)
These 7 teams combined for a 36-83 record in 2024. In these 8 games, the Dolphins outscored their opponents, 207-122. Meanwhile, in many of their nine losses this season, the Dolphins played much better competition. Let’s take a look at those matchups:
Week 2: 31-10 L vs Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Week 3: 24-3 L vs Seattle Seahawks (10-7)
Week 4: 31-12 L vs Tennessee Titans (3-14)
Week 7: 16-10 L vs Indianapolis Colts (8-9)
Week 8: 28-27 L vs Arizona Cardinals (8-9)
Week 9: 30-27 L vs Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Week 13: 30-17 L vs Green Bay Packers (11-6)
Week 15: 20-12 L vs Houston Texans (10-7)
Week 18: 32-20 L vs New York Jets (5-12)
In these matchups, the teams that Miami faced combined for a 68-68 record. In those 9 matchups, the Dolphins were outscored 242-138. But these games can be broken down in a different way.
Miami finished with an 8-9 record. If we look at their results against teams with a worse record, the same record, and a better record, it truly shows how fraudulent the Miami Dolphins were in 2024.
Vs Teams with a worse record: 7-2
Vs teams with the same record: 0-2
Vs Teams with a better record: 1-5
Now, the argument could be made that some of the Dolphins’ losses would have gone the other way if Tua Tagovailoa was healthy. However, this is a hypothetical that really can’t be explored in depth. Still, looking at the trends of the season, if Tua had played all 17 games, the Dolphins probably would have defeated Tennessee or the Jets in Week 8. Still, this would show the same trend that exists with the circumstances that occurred in real life—those being that the Dolphins likely would have been a playoff team based off beating bad opponents.
Of course, other issues besides Tua’s injuries derailed the season for Miami. Tyreek Hill recorded his first season with under 1,000 yards since 2019. Meanwhile, Jayden Waddle had his first sub-1000 receiving yard season in the NFL in 2024. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey missed some time in the season, and overall, the Dolphins don’t have the depth to overcome significant injuries. Which leads up to the future of the Dolphins, and what they need to do in 2025 to win their first playoff game in a quarter century.
The Needs of 2025
It does appear that Tyreek Hill is done playing in Miami. (NFL.Com). While this could change in one offseason, the Dolphins have to prepare for life without their superstar wide receiver.
Moreover, sitting at pick number 13 in the NFL Draft, the Dolphins have a plethora of talent to choose from. Whether they go offensive tackle, a wide receiver, help in the secondary, or defensive line, there are options available.
Tennessee edge rusher James Pearce has been flying up the draft boards to be on pace to be drafted around the same time as Texas A&M’s Nick Scourton and Georgia’s Jalon Walker. Should they go receiver, it’s possible that Luther Burden or Emeka Egbuka are available. Secodary help could see Notre Dame’s Benjamin Morrison, and there’s also offensive linemen like Kelvin Banks Jr. who could fall to 13.
Undoubtedly, the biggest need for the Dolphins in 2025 is to add legitimacy to their team. Miami can’t afford to continue being a team that beats up on weaker competition, just to fall flat when they face real competition—or the cold—in the playoffs.
Should head coach Mike McDaniel be on the hot seat? It depends. 2024 was undoubtedly an off year for the Dolphins, something that can be said for about half of the league—but McDaniel hasn’t been able to bring Miami any success in the playoffs. His career 28-23 record is not impressive for a team that should be doing far better.
