Gavin McKenna has shown high end vision and play making. McKenna dominated the second half of the season in the NCAA. I also thought his compete and 200-foot game improved as the season went on, which is something that I wanted to see before making him my top prospect in this year’s draft.
I think McKenna is very likely to be selected first overall to the Toronto Maple Leafs. McKenna’s playmaking ability and overall swagger is something that the Leafs have lacked at the top of their lineup since Mitch Marner left them last offseason. I expect McKenna to be an impact player next season.
Ivar Stenberg’s game will translate very well to the NHL. He does it all. He isn’t afraid to go to the dirty areas, he is very hard to knock off the puck, and he is excellent at finding holes in defensive structures. He plays a strong 200-foot game and has high compete. While not as talented as McKenna, I wouldn’t be shocked if he was the more effective player in the NHL next season and maybe even in the long run.
In a draft class with a lot of defensemen at the top, I have Reid as the best of them. Reid has great pace to his game. The blend of great puck skills and skating add up to a dynamic combination. The defense is a bit of a working progress. Defending against the rush has been a problem at times, and he needs to gain some weight. I think his decision to play for Michigan State next season will be great for his development. I like Reid’s chances of becoming a solid number one defender in the NHL one day.
While the NCAA exposed some flaws in Keaton Verhoeff’s game, there is a lot to like. He brings great size, and physicality. Verhoeff showed offensive flashes throughout the season. While the footspeed is a bit of a concern, and he doesn’t always make great decisions under pressure, it is important to remember that Verhoeff was playing in the hardest division in the NCAA, which is extremely impressive for a 17-year-old defenseman.
Carson Carels took off in the second half of the season. His physicality has developed throughout the season really nicely. His offensive production also increased as the season went on. Carels is good in transition and smart defensively. I am very curious to see what his production will look like next season for the University of North Dakota.
Caleb Malhotra’s game is very translatable to the NHL. He has a solid frame and uses it pretty well. He is not afraid to go to the net and create havoc. Malhotra is intelligent, and very good at finding the trailing man. He is good with his stick and breaks up a lot of plays. However, I don’t think he has the skillset to be a true number one center. He isn’t afraid to challenge defenders one on one and attempt fancy moves. However, a lot of the time he doesn’t have the skill to pull them off. This is a prospect I really like, but I see him more as a very good second line center, that tops out at 60 points in his best seasons.
Viggo Bjork has exceeded expectations everywhere he went this season. While he is below average in size, he makes up for it in other ways. Bjork is extremely intelligent. He plays the center position very well. He competes hard and isn’t afraid to battle for pucks. I think he projects well into the NHL as a top 6 center. I was close to having him as my top center of the draft, but his lack of size was enough for me to go with Malhotra as the C1 of the draft.
If he was only a couple inches bigger, I think we would be talking about Bjork as a likely top 5, maybe even top 3 pick. However, it is likely he goes between the 6-15 range in the draft.
Wyatt Cullen has risen a lot on draft boards over the past couple of months, and for good reason. Cullen had a tremendous end the season for the United States National Development Team and was stellar in the under 18s. Cullen is one of the most skilled players in the draft. He has excellent puck skills and creativity. His skating is a bit raw, but I think that could be easily explained by his massive growth spurt.
Malte Gustafsson is another big draft riser. At the start of the season Gustafsson was very raw. He struggled with decision making in transition, and I didn’t see much offensive upside. However, throughout the season, Gustafsson has developed nicely. I see improvements in his creativity and play driving. Defensively he is making fewer mistakes. While he is still a bit raw in some areas of his game, a 6”4 physical defenseman with smooth skating and some offensive tools are valuable.
Tynan Lawrence had an extremely up and down season. He got off to a great start in the USHL and solidified himself as a likely top 5 pick. Then midseason he transferred to a struggling Boston University team. He failed to produce much, and his draft stocks quickly plummeted. He was able to have an extremely strong finish to the college season, which saved his stocks in the end. While it took Lawrence a while to get going, it should be remembered he was a 17-year-old playing in the NCAA, on a struggling team. Lawrence is an all-around impactful center. He plays a detail-oriented defensive game, while being good in transition, and is lethal on the rush at times.
Alberts Smits is a big, mobile defenseman. He is very good in transition. He uses his big frame quite a bit. With the puck he is not afraid to try and run anyone over who gets in his way. Defensively, he is effective at separating puck carriers from the puck. Outside of his mobility and heavy shot, I do not know how much Smits will bring to the table offensively. His puck skills are a bit subpar, which I think might hold him back from putting up big numbers in the NHL one day. However, I see him as a really solid shutdown defenseman, that can break the puck up ice and score some goals. I also think Smits might be the most NHL ready defenseman in this year’s draft, which might increase his stock on draft day.
Ethan Belchetz brings strong value to the draft class as a big power forward. Belchetz goes through phases of playing very physically. He is good at using his large frame to defend the puck. Belchetz excels as a good net front presence and has good hands in tight of the net. While there are some issues with the play driving and creativity, it does take bigger players longer to develop. Some team will bet high on the size and skill in this range, or maybe even higher.
This is where the draft class falls off a little bit in quality. I see Nikita Shcherbakov as the top prospect in this next tear of prospects. Shcherbakov goes very under the radar with some of the other big mobile defenders in this draft class. I think in other years there would be way more talk about Shcherbakov as a top 15 pick. He is a massive defenseman, with solid mobility. Shcherbakov will definitely be a bit of a project as he is quite a bit raw, but I think he can round out as a shutdown top 4 defenseman one day.
Mathis Preston has had a rough draft season between injuries and bouncing around between bad WHL teams. However, I am betting on Preston’s skillset to become a very impactful NHL player one day. With the puck on his stick, he plays with a lot of intensity and is quite dynamic at times. I am very curious about what Preston could have accomplished this season on better teams.
Daxon Rudolph is a big right shot defenseman with good offensive traits. This combination will lead him to being a top 10 pick. He has good puck skills, a strong hockey IQ, plays with a ton of swagger and confidence, and moves well for a 6”4 defenseman. Defensively, Rudolph has left me wanting more at various points throughout the season. At times he is out of position, doesn’t play with enough urgency in the defensive zone, and doesn’t use his large frame nearly enough. I think Rudolph can be a good offensive defenseman, that has good moments in transition and in the offensive zone. However, I think he will likely be a bit flawed for his all-around play.
Alexander Command is a strong all-around center. Defensively he is relied on by his coaches in big moments such as late in games or on the penalty kill. He has some offensive chops, too. He’s a solid play driver and has some creativity with the puck. I think Command is super projectable, and if he hits his full potential, I think he can be a solid second line center that can play in all situations.
Tommy Bleyl is just another defenseman who had a great second half of their draft year. Bleyl is my top prospect from the QMJHL this season by a hair over Xavier Villeneuve. I think Bleyl consistently makes better decisions with the puck. Bleyl is a great skater and is extremely effective in transition. Bleyl has nice vision and is pretty deceptive with the puck on his stick. While he is a bit smaller, he does come from a tall family, so maybe he can still grow an inch or two.
Xavier Villeneuve is a true boom or bust prospect. He plays with so much deception and confidence. He walks the blue line so well and is very creative with the puck. He has true power play one QB upside. Unfortunately, his defensive game is very lackluster, and he has been pretty turnover prone. I can see a scenario where coaches don’t trust him, and he doesn’t get much opportunity.
Juho Piiparinen plays a very mature game. Defensively, he plays smart and uses his frame effectively. He is very reliable in big defensive moments. He probably won’t ever be a guy that produces big point totals or gets power play time, but I think he can be a high end shut down defenseman if he hits his potential.
Elton Hermansson is electric with the puck on his stick. He can take oppositions on in one-on-one situations and beat them with his strong puck skills. He is very effective when given some extra space, especially on the power play. He also has a sneaky good wrist shot. While he has a decent frame, he doesn’t use it much at all. I think he will likely have to be sheltered physically, kind of like Trevor Zegras or Kent Johnson.
Oliver Suvanto plays a strong 200-foot game. Defensively he is very responsible. He uses his frame well for physicality and doesn’t mind going to dirty areas. He is pretty good around the net as well. I can see him rounding out as a great third line center that can play in all situations.
Adam Novotny plays responsibly all over the ice. He is strong for his size and is very effective on the forecheck. Novotny is a good skater and has a nice release. His puck skills are a bit lackluster, which I think might hold him back from being a top 6 scorer, but I think he’ll have no issues becoming a long time NHLer.
Oscar Hemming is a big forward with above average skating. His production in the NCAA was underwhelming, but that can easily be explained by his midseason transfer. I just don’t see enough creativity or deception with the puck for me to project him as a top 6 forward long term. He plays a very simple game, and I can easily see an NHL player here.
Ilia Morozov is very similar to Suvanto in my opinion. For Miami University this season, he did it all as their top line center. He is very physical on the forecheck. He is a strong defensive player. His production slowed down in the second half of the season, but he is extremely young with an August birthday, and he held his own this season in many ways.
Ryan Lin is an intelligent two-way defender. He is very smart with his positioning and makes a lot of good decisions with the puck on his stick. Most of his better moments come in transition. I’m a little lower on him. I don’t think his offensive game is the most translatable. His lack of size alongside my concerns about his offensive upside is enough for me to keep him out of the top 20. However, I can see a world where he can stick as a puck moving defenseman that is good enough defensively for coaches to trust him with a middle pairing role.
Maddox Dagenais is quite electric with his reverse hits. He has improved his skating a lot this season and has a solid moder. Dagenais is good around the net and has an above average shot. I can see him projecting well as a middle 6 forward.
Ryder Cali is another super projectable prospect that I have in this range. Cali is physically very advanced. His strength is evident whenever I have watched him play. He regularly overpowers opponents on and off the puck. I think there is some offensive upside, especially with some flashes of above average playmaking skills.
Brooks Rogowski brings very interesting potential with his big frame. I think it is pretty remarkable how solid his straight-line skating is for his size. This comes in handy on the forecheck. He is extremely raw at this stage, and whatever team drafts him is getting a major project on their hands. I can definitely see a very unique bottom six power forward one day.
While being pretty raw at this stage, Niklas Aaram-Olsen shows some upside to be a middle-six scorer. He has an above average shot, and he has some physicality in his game. I think the biggest area of improvement is simplifying his game a bit. Overall, I think the tools are there to become an effective player all over the ice.
Ben Macbeath is a good skater and can make a nice first pass out of the zone. Defensively, he breaks up plays with his positioning and defends the rush pretty well. Macbeath is active in joining the rush and jumping into the play. Macbeath’s puck skills are a bit of a working progress, and I think at times he needs better gap control. I see strong upside as this two way/puck moving defenseman, but he is still quite raw at this stage of time.
The Ruck twins are the biggest profile hockey twins since the Sedins in 1999. Liam is the better of the two, by a solid margin. Ruck has some solid vision and can score too. He also has a physical element in his game. The big problem with him is that he isn’t the best skater and doesn’t really drive play up the ice. He will need to add more pace to his game to become a second/third line forward.
While J.P. Hurlbert is flawed in ways, he also displays some strong upside. He has a great shot. It’s hard and accurate. He also has a very good one timer. He shows some flashes of playmaking, but that is definitely more secondary to Hurlbert’s game. I think his skating might hold him back. He is behind physically, as he gets knocked off the puck too easily at times. I also think he’s a bit of a perimeter player. Hurlbert remains a boom or bust prospect at this time, but for teams looking for a potential top 6 forward, Hurlbert might be their best bet in this range.