While I don’t think it’s impossible for the Maple Leafs to stun the hockey world, I definitely lean towards them taking Gavin McKenna. He should bring the high-end playmaking and swagger that the Maple Leafs were lacking last season, since Mitch Marner went to Vegas. I think the smart thing to do is pick the best player available, which I do believe to be Gavin McKenna. If they are looking for more of an all-around impact player, they will probably go with Ivar Stenberg.
I do not think the Sharks recently acquiring right-handed defenseman, Michael Kesselring will necessarily mean they will not go in this direction on draft day. I think it’s up in the air between Chase Reid and Ivar Stenberg. I do lean Reid, just because how stacked their offense is looking. Even if they feel Stenberg is a better prospect now, there is only so much top 6/power play time to go around. I also would not put it past the Sharks to pick a different defender like Keaton Verhoeff or Carson Carels, if they are looking for a more physical/two-way architype. Despite past speculation, I do not think we will see the pick get traded.
While I would go with Ivar Stenberg in this spot, it seems to be the worst kept secret in hockey that the Canucks are selecting Caleb Malhotra regardless of who falls to three. I would never count out the scenario of a team doing the clear right move, especially with the Sedins Swedish connection. It just feels like the momentum is pulling in the Malhotra direction, and at this moment I would be shocked to see any other player go to Vancouver at this spot.
The Blackhawks would definitely be running up to the stage if Ivar Stenberg is available at four. Stenberg paired with Connor Bedard on the top line is a dream scenario. It is far from a given Stenberg makes it to the Blackhawks, as he is the second most likely player to be taken at every spot in the top three. If already off the board, I see them taking Caleb Malhotra or Carson Carels.
The Rangers have been a bit of a slower team over the past couple of seasons. I think Carson Carels brings the mobility and pace that the Rangers have needed in their backend. I think a few seasons down the line, Carels will compliment Adam Fox as a partner so well. Carels brings a two-way, physical presence to the game that the Rangers will appreciate.
The Flames pick was a little hard for me to predict, but I think they will go with Keaton Verhoeff at the end of the day. The right side on defense is looking like a long-term strength with Zayne Parekh and Hunter Brzustewicz. However, Verhoeff brings size, and physicality that Parekh, and Brzustewicz do not bring to the table. I heavily considered going with Viggo Bjork, but they already have some smaller forward prospects like Ethan Wyttenbach, Cullen Potter, and Cole Reschny. I think the Flames would be all over Carson Carels, but I do not see him being there at six. That left me between Wyatt Cullen who I think the Flames would like because of the high-end upside, and Keaton Verhoeff who I see them taking in the end.
With all four of the Kraken’s top ten picks, they have gone with centers, and it is finally time they prioritize the back end. I think the Kraken will be very tempted by the size and offensive tools that Rudolph brings to the table. I am not as high on him due to the lackluster defensive game, but I see him going in this range. Wyatt Cullen resembles the kind of players the Kraken have gone for in this range in the past, so I would not put it past them, but with new management I think they will take a defenseman.
The Jets' organizational forward depth looks very bleak, especially down the middle. I think the Jets will select Lawrence in hopes of him becoming the top six center they have needed for a while.
While I think the Florida Panthers would adore Viggo Bjork and maybe even Wyatt Cullen, I think Alberts Smits is too good of a fit for them to pass up on. Smits brings that aggressive in your face style the Panthers will appreciate. They also have Latvian defenseman Uvis Balinskis that will make Smits’ transition to North American hockey considerably easier on him. The Panthers could really use a defenseman with a weaker prospect pool and an older D-core.
While the Predators have gone for more size and projectability in the first half of the first round in recent memory, I think they might see Bjork as too good to pass on. I think they would love a right-handed defenseman, but all the top ones are gone. If Daxon Rudolph fell here, I think it would be a no brainer for the Preds. Tommy Bleyl resembles the defenseman they have taken in recent drafts (Tanner Molendyk and Cam Reid), but I think 10 would be a bit rich for him. I also think they would like Malte Gustafsson, especially with his brother being in the organization, but they are solidified on the left side. I heavily considered Wyatt Cullen and Ethan Belchetz, but ultimately, I went with Viggo Bjork.
With Jordan Kyrou potentially being moved this offseason, there will be more room for a skilled winger like Wyatt Cullen. I think the Blues would be wise to take Cullen here, as he is one of the most skilled players in the draft. Despite having him all the way at 11, I would not be shocked if a team took him significantly higher. The growth spurt and his September birthday will certainly help his case.
I see the Devils prioritizing centers in this spot. I think Jack Hughes is better off as a winger. Nico Hischier has one year left on his contract, and if the Devils are not confident about being able to keep him, Command could make some sense. I also can see them going in the direction of Ethan Belchetz or Adam Novotny who brings physicality and goal scoring that the Devils have lacked.
If still available, I think the Islanders would be all over Ethan Belchetz. They do not really have any prospects like him in their pool. With Anders Lee getting up there in age, a spot for Belchetz’s architype will open up.
With the Blue Jackets' recent attempt to become bigger, and more physical, I think Oscar Hemming makes a ton of sense. While I think Hemming can be more physically demanding, he has the frame to make it happen. I did consider a couple other physical players, but Hemming seems to fit the best.
While I think the Blues would not mind making another big upside swing, I think they will know Malte Gustafsson is too good to pass on. 6”4, mobile defenders are not easy to come by. I would not be shocked if Gustafsson had gone by here because of that. If that is the case, I see the Blues taking Xavier Villeneuve or Tommy Bleyl. Also, I could see them going for a center.
The Capitals are not afraid to make big swings on skilled forwards. For that reason, I think they will go with Elton Hermansson, especially with a bit of a successful past with skilled swedes. I can easily see Hermansson having power play/top six opportunities in a few seasons when he might be ready to compete for a spot on the team.
The Kings’ forward options are looking quite thin long term, especially down the middle. With Anze Kopitar retiring, they will welcome another shutdown centerman, even if they do not have the same offensive upside. The Kings clearly like their big defenseman, so I would not be shocked to see Juho Piiparinen, or even Nikita Shcherbakov in this spot.
With the Capitals making a big upside swing at 16 I think they will prioritize projectability. I think they would have loved Oliver Suvanto in this spot, however, I do not think him being gone will stop them from going with a center. As good as their prospect pool has gotten, the center position is still a bit of a weakness. You also have the Russian connection with Alexander Ovechkin. I can also see them taking Juho Piiparinen, who I think would be a great defensive partner for Cole Hutson in the future.
The Utah/Arizona organization has prioritized bigger players in the past. Novotny is not the biggest, but I think physicality will easily make up for it. Novotny brings so much to the table between the goal scoring, mobility, and simplicity in his game. I think the Mammoth organization will love Novotny as a future middle six piece.
While I would not mind seeing the Sabers select a right-handed defenseman in this range, I think the front office is satisfied with their D-core right now. I think the Sabers would like to get more physical, and it does not get more physical than Gleb Pugachyov. The Sabers were a little difficult for me to predict in this range, but recently they have tended to prioritize size and physicality.
The Flyers are another team in this range that has been prioritizing size recently. However, they do take some smaller players, especially ones that compete and have some contact skills. I would rather see the Flyers take Xavier Villeneuve or Tommy Bleyl, because they lack that offensive minded, power play 1 QB. However, I think Lin more fits what the Flyers usually go with. I think this can make sense, especially if they are higher on Lin’s scoring translatability than I am.
Last season, the Penguins elected to take a smaller player in Benjamin Kindel with their first pick and that has aged well through one season. I think they will do it again and take Xavier Villeneuve. Like the Flyers, I think the Penguins can use a top offensive defender with Erik Karlson and Chris Letang getting up there in age.
Nikita Shcherbakov screams “Boston Bruins” to me. The Bruins tend to draft big players, and they have Nikita Zadorov on their roster who is also Russian and a very similar architype. I think Shcherbakov has been very overlooked in a draft class with a variety of big defenders, with mobility, and I think the Bruins will be all over him.
With this being the first draft with the Sedins in the Canucks front office, I cannot help but imagine them taking a chance on the Ruck twins. I can easily see them going with Liam Ruck at 24, and Markus Ruck with their next pick at 33. With their top pick, they selected Caleb Malhotra, a very projectable prospect. I could see them making a big swing. I can see Mathis Preston, or even Nikita Klepov as options as well.
After going defense with their top pick, I think they will go right back to taking centerman. I can see the Kraken moving on from Shane Wright this offseason, and I think they’ll see Cali as a good third center of the future. However, they do tend to go for more high-end skill in the first round. I can also see Mathis Preston as that upside swing. He plays close to Seattle, which means they have probably scouted him quite a bit.
The Rangers’ current center core is aging, and I do not see any of their younger centers being impactful long term, besides Noah Laba. I think the Rangers will like Maddox Dagenais for his physicality and goal scoring that he brings to the table. I can also see them taking Casey Multryn or Victor Plante as they have selected a bunch of players from the USNDT program recently.
Casey Multryn is a great fit for the Sharks in a middle six role. He brings some nice physicality and has a nice motor. On top of being a great fit, his brother is in the Sharks organization which will not hurt his case. I can also see them taking Juho Piiparinen if they want to double down with right-handed defenders.
I think the Canadiens will prioritize the center position with this pick. I believe Oliver Kapanen’s success in the second line center role was very circumstantial, and there is a chance Michael Hage will end up on the wing.
Despite taking Malte Gustafson earlier in the draft, I see the Blues taking another defender. I think the Blues would like to find a defenseman with a bit higher offensive upside, that can run a power play. Tommy Bleyl is their best bet as a point producer in this range.
The Flames love to go for high upside prospects. Mathis Preston brings a lot of skill to the table. I Also considered Ben Macbeath for this spot, because they are thin on left-handed defenders in their prospect pool, and he plays for the Calgary Hitmen, so I am sure they have scouted him. However, ultimately, I see them taking Preston and prioritizing left-handed defenseman in the second round.
I think the Hurricanes will look to upgrade the right side of their defense with this pick. While I see Juho Piiparinen as the better player, I think the Canes will think Adam Goljer will be a better fit for their system. Goljer is strong in transition, which the Hurricanes will appreciate about his game. I also think they will like his bigger frame, even if he is a bit unrefined physically at this stage.
The Senators have tended to go bigger with their picks in recent memory. I think the 6”7 Brooks Rogowski will be extremely attractive to the Sens. He is very raw and will be quite the project. I can see him becoming a unique bottom six forward with his massive frame.